phinsup

You really shouldn't get me talking about metals.



I don't really trade base metals so I can't give much in the line of estimates. All commodities are getting ready to hit the ground running, oil, base metals, precious metals, agriculture, the bull has just begun.



Gold to $1200 soon, then $1650 as the dollar continues to collapse it would be impossible to even find a ceiling for gold, alf fields numbers are





(we are in the Major THREE right now)



I'll refrain from boring you with the details of alf's predictions and his past, he uses Elliot Waves and has been spot on in his predictions in the past, no "almosts" you can look into alf if you are so inclined. He is no longer doing predictions as he is afraid people will dump their metals on the next wave and not be able to get them back, by the time the major 5 hits you aint getting yer hands on bullion. Alf did make an interesting statement last week saying that after the $10,000 mark there will be no downside return, he feels that at the $10k point gold will tied into the monetary system and 10k will be the floor at that point. Feel free to read through my blog if you are so inclined as I believe I have made a significant argument for this being a possibility.



I do believe the $10,000 number will only be reached if/when a total us dollar collapse occurs and I do quite honestly believe that to be inevitable at this point, certainly a Weimar type event is on our way and I do believe it will drive the price of gold to the $10,000 mark(please note I am not making a $10,000 spot price prediction here, I am merely saying anything is possible in the course we've plotted for our currency) of course my guess is the last thing one would want to do at that point is sell for fiat dollars, gold's buying power will be what makes it shine the most in that period.



The major move in gold will take place soon, june/july i think we'll see major upward movement in gold (this is a daring statement for anyone in the bullion biz to say btw as age old gold saying goes "Sell in May and Go Away"), but I have said June/July 2009 for well over a year and I'll stick to it Notice I am predicting the push to $1200, the beginning of the major three, I don't have a time line in mind for the completion of major three (you could look to armstrongs predictions for this if you were so inclined). Of course my timeline always has the ability to be off, sometimes I'm a little early to the party, but rarely if ever late to it



When the dollar begins trading @/below .79 and gold @ 960 plus this will be my "all in" signal for another major move. Checked the charts lately? Gold and the usd have once again revisited their relationship of moving in opposition and I believe this also signals a major move down for the dollar and a major move up for gold.



Back to base metals. China has been swapping their us dollars for absolutely EVERY form of metal they can get their hands on, you name they are buying, gold, silver, copper, iron, base metals, precious metals they are not so quietly dumping their USD reserves and moving to any metal they can get their hands on. Remember all that IMF gold? It only strengthened the resolve of the bullion traders as china offered to snap up every ounce the IMF offered to sell, was this a sale of gold to fund the IMF, or a sale of gold to keep China happy and from dumping their usd reserves like a hot potato????



Many of the technical traders got flushed out when gold went opposite the technical analysis, all the shorts had to cover and quite honestly it made me proud to know there are some of us who still trade using something other then computer software and even better the software hedgies got bit and had to cover

Nateb123

Well there's your all-in signal. 979.3 for gold, 79.22 for the USD

phinsup

Indeed Although I've been "all in" for quite some time, like around the $700 mark, i'm averaged out at about $750. I guess I was using that as more of a metaphor

Nateb123

Haha good! I've been all in for a while too and was going "Why the hell is he still waiting?" lol.

phinsup

Yea I should have went with something less dramatic like "this is when I start planning for retirement" LOL

Nateb123

Right on. I sure as hell don't have that much in gold, or that much at all lol. Still, my dad took my advise to go all in gold as well and he'll be using his winnings to send me to school debt free so I sure can't complain.

phinsup

HELLO WEIMAR!

1988RedT2

Here's another view:



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home



‘Last Stage’



The euro’s rally against the dollar may be entering its “last stage,” and investors would likely benefit from selling the 16-nation currency against the greenback, UBS AG said.



Europe’s currency is poised to weaken toward $1.30, analysts led by Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Zurich-based chief currency strategist at the world’s second-biggest foreign-exchange trader, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. The analysts reiterated forecasts for the euro to trade at $1.40 in one month’s time and weaken to $1.30 in three months.



“We remain positive on the U.S. dollar and think that the greenback is likely in its final stage of weakness,” the analysts wrote. “Equity and bond flows have the potential to surprise and could lend support to the dollar.”

phinsup

ha ha yea ok, won't be long until we see who's right



Interestingly enough I'd like to know what magic chart he's reading as I don't see any chart showing the dollar at the "end of it's weakness" quite the opposite it's at the "end of it's strength" it just rallied to high and began falling, which is the opposite of what he's describing.

phinsup

I need one more rally on the USD, looks like we might get although with the LT Bond auction coming up it might be hard to sustain. Two options here guys 1) Come out with great unemployment numbers and let the auction fail miserably, hold off on the "green shoots" until next month. (number 2 might be more likely) 2) come out with bad unemployment numbers and try to force investors out of the dow and into the bond auction.



Now number 2 might sound risky, but its actually a good move, an LT Bond auction failure would be the shot heard round the world (so to speak) the last auction was bad, the bond market is standing on the edge of collapse, now you may not know what that means, but let me tell you when no one buys the long term bonds, we start eating ourselves, we just print money, dillution of course it's already been made clear that this scenario is likely, or rather that Ben and his boys will be more then happy to do it if the necessity arises, but this would of course set in motion a currency event like we've never seen here in the US (hyperinflation).



I still want to see that 10,000 dow and even though no one believed me 5 months ago when I said I think people are starting to come around, a fool and his money are bound to part......... and that dow rally is starting to get all the fools excited.



Of course my wishful thinking would be some more pressure on metals, i'd like to have some time to unload some assets i've got and convert even more to the shiny stuff, i might even buy a little more Ag as the Ag to Au ratio appears to need some closing. Also this would present an excellent opportunity to convert Pt to Au/Ag if one were so inclined.



Dollar still sits below 80 with some resistance there, the USD never really shattered the lower resistance and its been more or less trading sideways, doldrums. So short term i would be reluctant to put ANY prediction what so ever on the daily dollar moves.



So in the market no shorts, no longs right now, too unpredictable, Jim Rogers, The Master we'll call him said yesterday that for the first time in his life he has NO shorts, he is long in commodoties, long gold and he said surprisingly long Silver WINK WINK he likes the silver right now. Of course Jim is well aware that the dollar is on it's way out, he holds no dollars and is not in the US.



Still set for July IMO, july for the gold blast off of course, I'm not calling anything else. Well 10,000 dow before someone pulls the rug, but that one seems obvious.



Sorry typed this in a hurry so there are errors, gotta go to work I'm into Overtime today 6 days strait.