ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Cut Fewer Jobs as Recession Eased
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Joined: Jul 2001
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From: Stuart, FL
YAY, recession is over, now get in the unemployment line you dumb ***** LOL Just so i've got this strait, if it's less then estimated, the recession is over, if the unemployment rolls are still increasing at a rapid rate, but less then predicted the recession is over..... hmm I would bet that even in the worst depression at some point there would be almost no layoffs cause NOBODY HAS A ******* JOB!!! Let me know when the number of jobs lost is ZERO and the number of people hired for the month is 500,000 then we'll talk about the end of the "recession".
So the cliff notes.... if you thought the recession would be over when companies stopped laying off and starting hiring you were wrong. The recession is over when they lay off less then the previous month, thats the end. It's almost as if the ben and his boys are hinting at a new era.... an ero where 9 million unemployed americans IS in fact the good old days isn't it???? 9 million unemployed will be boom, apparently it will now take 25 million to be a recession. Typical rhetoric, when the old guidelines indicate you aren't doing your job, come up with some new ones that indicate you're doing it perfectly. Don't do your job, change the description of your job to be nothing!
So the cliff notes.... if you thought the recession would be over when companies stopped laying off and starting hiring you were wrong. The recession is over when they lay off less then the previous month, thats the end. It's almost as if the ben and his boys are hinting at a new era.... an ero where 9 million unemployed americans IS in fact the good old days isn't it???? 9 million unemployed will be boom, apparently it will now take 25 million to be a recession. Typical rhetoric, when the old guidelines indicate you aren't doing your job, come up with some new ones that indicate you're doing it perfectly. Don't do your job, change the description of your job to be nothing!
By Bob Willis
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. cut fewer jobs in April, indicating the worst of the recession’s employment losses may have passed, a private report showed today.
Payrolls fell by an estimated 491,000 workers last month, less than economists forecast and the fewest since October, figures from ADP Employer Services today showed. March’s reading was revised to show a reduction of 708,000 workers, down from a previous estimate of 742,000.
Stabilization in consumer spending following the worst slump in three decades is stoking expectations that the recession will end in the second half of the year. Still, a Labor Department report in two days may show employers cut payrolls in April for a 16th consecutive month, pushing job losses in the current downturn to almost 6 million, according to a Bloomberg survey.
“We’re seeing a very clear bottoming pattern,” said John Herrmann, chief economist at Herrmann Forecasting in Summit, New Jersey. “This holds out the possibility that the fiscal stimulus, along with consumers resuming more normal spending patters, will lift the economy into positive growth in the second half.”
Stock rose after the report showed job losses were starting to slow. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index climbed 0.2 percent to 905.84 at 10:35 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities were little changed with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note at 3.17 percent.
Less Than Forecast
The ADP report was forecast to show a decline of 645,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 28 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections were for decreases ranging from 560,000 to 733,000.
A government report May 8 may show payrolls at companies and government agencies shrank by 610,000 in April and unemployment rose to a 25-year high of 8.9 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Companies are still eliminating staff to bolster profit following the worst slump in consumer spending in three decades. Microsoft Corp., the world’s biggest software maker, last month reaffirmed plans to eliminate as many as 5,000 jobs by the middle of 2010 to help meet its goal of saving $1.5 billion annually in operating expenses.
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. said it trimmed 3,800 jobs as part of a plan for 5,000 reductions after posting a smaller- than-forecast first-quarter loss.
Private Employment
The ADP figures comprise only private employment and don’t take into account hiring by government agencies. Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis produces the report jointly with ADP.
Government payrolls may show an improvement in April as the Census Bureau began hiring 140,000 workers to help conduct next year’s population count. A total of 1.4 million people will be hired over the next year, many on a part-time basis, to carry out the survey, Census said in March.
Another report today also reflected a weak labor market. Job cuts announced by U.S. employers rose 47 percent in April from a year earlier to 132,590, led by planned cutbacks at government and non-profit agencies and automotive companies, Chicago-based placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said.
The Federal Reserve projects the U.S. will probably continue to lose jobs even after the economy emerges from the recession, economists said.
“We are likely to see further sizable job losses and increased unemployment in coming months,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told congress yesterday. “The unemployment rate could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes.”
Smaller Reductions
Today’s ADP report showed a reduction of 262,000 workers in goods-producing industries including manufacturers and construction companies. Employment in manufacturing dropped by 159,000. Service providers cut 229,000 workers.
Companies employing more than 499 workers shrank their workforces by 77,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, cut 231,000 jobs and small companies decreased payrolls by 183,000.
“There is a sense here of a turn,” Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, said on a conference call with reporters. Still, “one month’s number does not a trend make. I’m still expecting to see several more months of notable decline in employment. There will be some bumps in the road on the way.”
The ADP report is based on data from 400,000 businesses with about 24 million workers on payrolls.
ADP began keeping records in January 2001 and started publishing its numbers in 2006.
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. cut fewer jobs in April, indicating the worst of the recession’s employment losses may have passed, a private report showed today.
Payrolls fell by an estimated 491,000 workers last month, less than economists forecast and the fewest since October, figures from ADP Employer Services today showed. March’s reading was revised to show a reduction of 708,000 workers, down from a previous estimate of 742,000.
Stabilization in consumer spending following the worst slump in three decades is stoking expectations that the recession will end in the second half of the year. Still, a Labor Department report in two days may show employers cut payrolls in April for a 16th consecutive month, pushing job losses in the current downturn to almost 6 million, according to a Bloomberg survey.
“We’re seeing a very clear bottoming pattern,” said John Herrmann, chief economist at Herrmann Forecasting in Summit, New Jersey. “This holds out the possibility that the fiscal stimulus, along with consumers resuming more normal spending patters, will lift the economy into positive growth in the second half.”
Stock rose after the report showed job losses were starting to slow. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index climbed 0.2 percent to 905.84 at 10:35 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities were little changed with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note at 3.17 percent.
Less Than Forecast
The ADP report was forecast to show a decline of 645,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 28 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections were for decreases ranging from 560,000 to 733,000.
A government report May 8 may show payrolls at companies and government agencies shrank by 610,000 in April and unemployment rose to a 25-year high of 8.9 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Companies are still eliminating staff to bolster profit following the worst slump in consumer spending in three decades. Microsoft Corp., the world’s biggest software maker, last month reaffirmed plans to eliminate as many as 5,000 jobs by the middle of 2010 to help meet its goal of saving $1.5 billion annually in operating expenses.
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. said it trimmed 3,800 jobs as part of a plan for 5,000 reductions after posting a smaller- than-forecast first-quarter loss.
Private Employment
The ADP figures comprise only private employment and don’t take into account hiring by government agencies. Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis produces the report jointly with ADP.
Government payrolls may show an improvement in April as the Census Bureau began hiring 140,000 workers to help conduct next year’s population count. A total of 1.4 million people will be hired over the next year, many on a part-time basis, to carry out the survey, Census said in March.
Another report today also reflected a weak labor market. Job cuts announced by U.S. employers rose 47 percent in April from a year earlier to 132,590, led by planned cutbacks at government and non-profit agencies and automotive companies, Chicago-based placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said.
The Federal Reserve projects the U.S. will probably continue to lose jobs even after the economy emerges from the recession, economists said.
“We are likely to see further sizable job losses and increased unemployment in coming months,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told congress yesterday. “The unemployment rate could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes.”
Smaller Reductions
Today’s ADP report showed a reduction of 262,000 workers in goods-producing industries including manufacturers and construction companies. Employment in manufacturing dropped by 159,000. Service providers cut 229,000 workers.
Companies employing more than 499 workers shrank their workforces by 77,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, cut 231,000 jobs and small companies decreased payrolls by 183,000.
“There is a sense here of a turn,” Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, said on a conference call with reporters. Still, “one month’s number does not a trend make. I’m still expecting to see several more months of notable decline in employment. There will be some bumps in the road on the way.”
The ADP report is based on data from 400,000 businesses with about 24 million workers on payrolls.
ADP began keeping records in January 2001 and started publishing its numbers in 2006.
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 2,535
From: VA
ADP stands for Another Disastrous Payroll. Honestly, the people who work for this company are scary. If they can type the right numbers in the boxes, then you're okay, but god help you if they actually need to think.
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Posts: 2,535
From: VA
Originally Posted by phinsup' post='921384' date='May 6 2009, 10:11 PM
their numbers have been pretty close to what is released as "official" thus far. btw, my uncle was acting president (vice president) of adp in the 80's LOL
Ah.
I'm aware of a few instances where their salespeople said they could do blah-blah-blah, and when it came time to implement the system, it was like "you want it to do WHAT?"
Thread Starter
Administrator
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 24,416
From: Stuart, FL
Originally Posted by 1988RedT2' post='921395' date='May 7 2009, 07:11 AM
Ah.
I'm aware of a few instances where their salespeople said they could do blah-blah-blah, and when it came time to implement the system, it was like "you want it to do WHAT?"
I'm aware of a few instances where their salespeople said they could do blah-blah-blah, and when it came time to implement the system, it was like "you want it to do WHAT?"
Sounds like the statu quo to me!
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 24,416
From: Stuart, FL
Yesterday it was an exciting 450,000 down from a predicted 630,000...
Today:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- New applications for U.S. jobless benefits plunged to the lowest level in 14 weeks, a possible sign that the massive wave of layoffs has peaked. Still, the number of unemployed Americans getting benefits climbed to a new record.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number newly laid off workers applying for benefits dropped to 601,000 last week. That was far better than the rise to 635,000 claims that economists expected.
My guess is they add 25% to the estimate every month so they can spin it as good news. So if we apply that 25% it's actually higher then the real estimate LOL But DO NOT WORRY, this is good news!
Today:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- New applications for U.S. jobless benefits plunged to the lowest level in 14 weeks, a possible sign that the massive wave of layoffs has peaked. Still, the number of unemployed Americans getting benefits climbed to a new record.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number newly laid off workers applying for benefits dropped to 601,000 last week. That was far better than the rise to 635,000 claims that economists expected.
My guess is they add 25% to the estimate every month so they can spin it as good news. So if we apply that 25% it's actually higher then the real estimate LOL But DO NOT WORRY, this is good news!
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 24,416
From: Stuart, FL
And of course here comes the actual number, wait for it....... wait for it...... IT WAS HIGHER THEN THE ESTIMATE LOL
Jobless claims jump to 637K; producer prices rise
Jobless claims rise more than expected on increased auto layoffs, producer prices also higher
Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
On Thursday May 14, 2009, 11:49 am EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Fresh reminders that the U.S. recession likely has passed its peak, but hasn’t ended, emerged Thursday in reports that first-time claims for jobless aid and wholesale prices rose more than expected.
Economists said the jumps, while bitter reminders of the country’s weak economy, were not cause for great concern. Jobless claims should ease after layoffs in the automobile industry are complete, while inflation remains under control.
The Labor Department said the number of new jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 637,000, from a revised 605,000 the previous week. That’s above analysts’ expectations of 610,000.
Jobless claims rise more than expected on increased auto layoffs, producer prices also higher
Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
On Thursday May 14, 2009, 11:49 am EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Fresh reminders that the U.S. recession likely has passed its peak, but hasn’t ended, emerged Thursday in reports that first-time claims for jobless aid and wholesale prices rose more than expected.
Economists said the jumps, while bitter reminders of the country’s weak economy, were not cause for great concern. Jobless claims should ease after layoffs in the automobile industry are complete, while inflation remains under control.
The Labor Department said the number of new jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 637,000, from a revised 605,000 the previous week. That’s above analysts’ expectations of 610,000.
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Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,425
From: Tallahassee, FL
Isn't the majority of the economy determined by whether or not people spend their money? They're so used to bending news stories and sensationalizing, might as well make things seem better than they are so people start spending money. amirite?
In the mean time, the bum camp down the street from my house is growing pretty rapidly. Each night I see 3-4 fires (it's a large wooded area alongside a major road), and at the intersection nearby I see new people every day (along with the originals who have been there for years, nice guys).
In the mean time, the bum camp down the street from my house is growing pretty rapidly. Each night I see 3-4 fires (it's a large wooded area alongside a major road), and at the intersection nearby I see new people every day (along with the originals who have been there for years, nice guys).
